An agentic forecaster with linguistic belief states, logit-space multi-trial shrinkage, and hierarchical Platt calibration achieves SOTA Brier Index on ForecastBench binary questions.
Reasoning and tools for human-level forecasting
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Agentic Forecasting using Sequential Bayesian Updating of Linguistic Beliefs
An agentic forecaster with linguistic belief states, logit-space multi-trial shrinkage, and hierarchical Platt calibration achieves SOTA Brier Index on ForecastBench binary questions.