Order flow imbalance can be modeled as a mean-reverting Levy-driven shock to the price drift, giving closed-form mean and variance for future log returns.
Multi-asset optimal execution and statistical arbitrage strategies under Ornstein-Uhlenbeck dynamics
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abstract
In recent years, academics, regulators, and market practitioners have increasingly addressed liquidity issues. Amongst the numerous problems addressed, the optimal execution of large orders is probably the one that has attracted the most research works, mainly in the case of single-asset portfolios. In practice, however, optimal execution problems often involve large portfolios comprising numerous assets, and models should consequently account for risks at the portfolio level. In this paper, we address multi-asset optimal execution in a model where prices have multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck dynamics and where the agent maximizes the expected (exponential) utility of her PnL. We use the tools of stochastic optimal control and simplify the initial multidimensional Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation into a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) involving a Matrix Riccati ODE for which classical existence theorems do not apply. By using \textit{a priori} estimates obtained thanks to optimal control tools, we nevertheless prove an existence and uniqueness result for the latter ODE, and then deduce a verification theorem that provides a rigorous solution to the execution problem. Using examples based on data from the foreign exchange and stock markets, we eventually illustrate our results and discuss their implications for both optimal execution and statistical arbitrage.
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Stochastic Price Dynamics in Response to Order Flow Imbalance: Evidence from CSI 300 Index Futures
Order flow imbalance can be modeled as a mean-reverting Levy-driven shock to the price drift, giving closed-form mean and variance for future log returns.