A novel observationally constrained probabilistic trigger for mesoscale convective systems improves spatiotemporal scales of tropical precipitation and ensemble spread in NWP models compared to prior MCSP schemes.
Met Office MOGREPS-G initialisation using an ensemble of hybrid four-dimensional ensemble variational (En-4DEnVar) data assimilations
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An observationally constrained probabilistic trigger for organized deep convection in an NWP ensemble
A novel observationally constrained probabilistic trigger for mesoscale convective systems improves spatiotemporal scales of tropical precipitation and ensemble spread in NWP models compared to prior MCSP schemes.