Stratospheric polar vortex predictability is multimodal, with short-term forecasts dominated by persistence of the leading state and extended forecasts arising from higher-order stratospheric structures plus tropospheric variability.
Baldwin and Timothy J
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Atmospheric response to Gulf Stream front shifts is strongly resolution-dependent below 50 km and NAO leads GSF shifts by 2-3 years only during 1972-2018 with non-stationary behavior linked to oceanic circulation and Rossby waves.
citing papers explorer
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State-resolved multimodal contributions to stratospheric polar vortex predictability
Stratospheric polar vortex predictability is multimodal, with short-term forecasts dominated by persistence of the leading state and extended forecasts arising from higher-order stratospheric structures plus tropospheric variability.
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Ocean-atmosphere interaction at the Gulf Stream sea surface temperature front: variability and impacts on midlatitude atmospheric circulation
Atmospheric response to Gulf Stream front shifts is strongly resolution-dependent below 50 km and NAO leads GSF shifts by 2-3 years only during 1972-2018 with non-stationary behavior linked to oceanic circulation and Rossby waves.