The paper reports that KL divergence of national population pyramids from Malta's pyramid correlates strongly with COVID-19 cases (r=-0.86) and deaths (r=-0.82), but the reference was chosen to maximize that correlation.
The Lancet 395(10229), 1054–1062 (Mar 2020)
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PoPStat-COVID19: Leveraging Population Pyramids to Quantify Demographic Vulnerability to COVID-19
The paper reports that KL divergence of national population pyramids from Malta's pyramid correlates strongly with COVID-19 cases (r=-0.86) and deaths (r=-0.82), but the reference was chosen to maximize that correlation.