Forward Flux Sampling applied to a 1-degree neural weather emulator resolves conditional tropical cyclogenesis rates spanning three orders of magnitude across 98 Atlantic initial conditions, with self-consistency ratio 1.03 to direct sampling and computational gains up to 140X.
Towards accurate extreme event likelihoods from diffusion model climate emulators
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abstract
ML climate model emulators are useful for scenario planning and adaptation, allowing for cost-efficient experimentation. Recently, the diffusion model Climate in a Bottle (cBottle) has been proposed for generation of atmospheric states compatible with boundary conditions of solar position and sea surface temperatures. Crucially, cBottle can be guided to generate extreme events such as Tropical Cyclones (TCs) over locations of interest. Diffusion models such as cBottle work by approximating the probability density of the training data. Here, we show use cases of the probability density estimates of atmospheric states obtained from this climate emulator. Most importantly, these estimates allow us to calculate likelihoods of extreme events under guidance. When guiding the model towards states including TCs, comparing the probability density under the guided and unguided model enables us to quantify how much more likely the guidance has made the TC. We show how these odds ratios allow us to importance-sample from the TC distribution, reducing the standard error of the probability estimate compared to simple Monte Carlo sampling. Furthermore, we discuss results and limitations of the application of model probability densities to extreme event attribution-like experiments. We present these early but encouraging results hoping they will spur more research into probabilistic information that can be gained from diffusion models of the atmosphere.
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physics.ao-ph 2years
2026 2verdicts
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Optimizing training data via a differentiable SCM yields climate emulators that outperform those trained on six standard ScenarioMIP pathways while using less data and isolating distinct forcing responses.
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Conditional Tropical Cyclogenesis Rates via Rare-Event Sampling in a Neural Weather Emulator
Forward Flux Sampling applied to a 1-degree neural weather emulator resolves conditional tropical cyclogenesis rates spanning three orders of magnitude across 98 Atlantic initial conditions, with self-consistency ratio 1.03 to direct sampling and computational gains up to 140X.
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Optimal scenario design for climate emulation
Optimizing training data via a differentiable SCM yields climate emulators that outperform those trained on six standard ScenarioMIP pathways while using less data and isolating distinct forcing responses.