A new framework approximates thinned count autoregressions with a normal-normal model and a latent Gaussian transform, enabling simple Bayesian reconstruction of under-reported epidemic curves.
Stratified S pace-- T ime I nfectious D isease M odelling, with an A pplication to H and, F oot and M outh D isease in C hina
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Modelling Under-Reported Data: Pitfalls of Na\"ive Approaches and a New Statistical Framework for Epidemic Curve Reconstruction
A new framework approximates thinned count autoregressions with a normal-normal model and a latent Gaussian transform, enabling simple Bayesian reconstruction of under-reported epidemic curves.