Prediction market prices for Bitcoin thresholds on Polymarket exceed option-implied probabilities from Binance by 5.6-6.3 percentage points on average, with the gap persistent yet mean-reverting.
Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz
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Do Prediction Markets Match Option Prices? Bitcoin Threshold Evidence from Binance and Polymarket
Prediction market prices for Bitcoin thresholds on Polymarket exceed option-implied probabilities from Binance by 5.6-6.3 percentage points on average, with the gap persistent yet mean-reverting.