Relativistic orbits around spinning supermassive black holes. Secular evolution to 4.5 post-Newtonian order

We derive the secular evolution of the orbital elements of a stellar-mass object orbiting a spinning massive black hole. We use the post-Newtonian approximation in harmonic coordinates, with test-body equations of motion for the conservative dynamics that are valid through 3PN order, including spin-orbit, quadrupole and (spin)$^2$ effects, and with radiation-reaction contributions linear in the mass of the body that are valid through 4.5PN order, including the 4PN damping effects of spin-orbit coupling. The evolution equations for the osculating orbit elements are iterated to high PN orders using a two-timescale approach and averaging over orbital timescales. We derive a criterion for terminating the orbit when its Carter constant drops below a critical value, whereupon the body plunges across the event horizon at the next closest approach. The results are valid for arbitrary eccentricities and arbitrary inclinations. We then analyze numerically the orbits of objects injected into high-eccentricity orbits via interactions within a surrounding star cluster, obtaining the number of orbits and the elapsed time between injection and plunge, and the residual orbital eccentricity at plunge as a function of inclination. We derive an analytic approximation for the time to plunge in terms of initial orbital variables. We show that, if the black hole is spinning rapidly, the flux of gravitational radiation during the final orbit before plunge may be suppressed by as much as three orders of magnitude if the orbit is retrograde on the equatorial plane compared to its prograde counterpart.