No-CoT 50% task-completion time horizons for frontier models have doubled yearly for six years, reaching over 3 minutes for GPT-5.5, with median projections of 7 minutes by 2028 and 25 minutes by 2030.
Planning and problem solving using the five-disc Tower of London task.The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology Section A, 50(1):49–78, 1997
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Think Fast: Estimating No-CoT Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models
No-CoT 50% task-completion time horizons for frontier models have doubled yearly for six years, reaching over 3 minutes for GPT-5.5, with median projections of 7 minutes by 2028 and 25 minutes by 2030.