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Towards a cosmological neutrino mass detection

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abstract

Future cosmological measurements should enable the sum of neutrino masses to be determined indirectly through their effects on the expansion rate of the Universe and the clustering of matter. We consider prospects for the gravitationally lensed Cosmic Microwave Background anisotropies and Baryon Acoustic Oscillations in the galaxy distribution, examining how the projected uncertainty of $\approx15$ meV on the neutrino mass sum (a 4$\sigma$ detection of the minimal mass) might be reached over the next decade. The current 1$\sigma$ uncertainty of $\approx 103$ meV (Planck-2015+BAO-15) will be improved by upcoming 'Stage-3' CMB experiments (S3+BAO-15: 44 meV), then upcoming BAO measurements (S3+DESI: 22 meV), and planned next-generation 'Stage 4' CMB experiments (S4+DESI: 15-19 meV, depending on angular range). An improved optical depth measurement is important: the projected neutrino mass uncertainty increases to $26$ meV if S4 is limited to $\ell>20$ and combined with current large-scale polarization data. Looking beyond $\Lambda$CDM, including curvature uncertainty increases the forecast mass error by $\approx$ 50% for S4+DESI, and more than doubles the error with a two-parameter dark energy equation of state. Complementary low-redshift probes including galaxy lensing will play a role in distinguishing between massive neutrinos and a departure from a $w=-1$, flat geometry.

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representative citing papers

Measuring neutrino mass in light of ACT DR6 and DESI DR2

astro-ph.CO · 2026-03-11 · unverdicted · novelty 5.0

New ACT and DESI data yield model-dependent upper limits on sum of neutrino masses, with holographic dark energy giving the tightest bounds and a consistent preference for degenerate hierarchy.

Planck 2018 results. VI. Cosmological parameters

astro-ph.CO · 2018-07-17 · accept · novelty 5.0

Final Planck CMB data confirms the flat 6-parameter ΛCDM model with Ω_c h² = 0.120 ± 0.001, Ω_b h² = 0.0224 ± 0.0001, n_s = 0.965 ± 0.004, τ = 0.054 ± 0.007, H_0 = 67.4 ± 0.5 km/s/Mpc, and no strong evidence for extensions.

Cosmological searches for the neutrino mass scale and mass ordering

astro-ph.CO · 2019-07-18 · unverdicted · novelty 4.0

Thesis summarizing an upper limit of 0.12 eV on the neutrino mass sum, bias calibration via CMB lensing cross-correlations, and tighter limits plus stronger normal-ordering preference in non-phantom dynamical dark energy models.

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Showing 5 of 5 citing papers.