LLMs exhibit Bayesian-like hypothesis updating with strong-sampling bias and an evaluation-generation gap but generalize poorly outside observed data.
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SBBT separates Brier-score calibration gains from AUROC ranking gains in prefix-conditioned success estimation for LLM math reasoning, with structure-aware signals yielding up to +0.110 AUROC over baselines.
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Prefix-Safe Bayesian Belief Tracking for LLM Reasoning Reliability:Separating Calibration from Ranking
SBBT separates Brier-score calibration gains from AUROC ranking gains in prefix-conditioned success estimation for LLM math reasoning, with structure-aware signals yielding up to +0.110 AUROC over baselines.