A new framework approximates thinned count autoregressions with a normal-normal model and a latent Gaussian transform, enabling simple Bayesian reconstruction of under-reported epidemic curves.
Endemic-Epidemic Framework Used in Covid-19 Modelling:[Discussion on the paper by Nunes, Caetano, Antunes and Dias]
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Modelling Under-Reported Data: Pitfalls of Na\"ive Approaches and a New Statistical Framework for Epidemic Curve Reconstruction
A new framework approximates thinned count autoregressions with a normal-normal model and a latent Gaussian transform, enabling simple Bayesian reconstruction of under-reported epidemic curves.