Learned functional perturbations plus CRPS training convert deterministic ML interatomic potentials into probabilistic ones, improving CRPS by 19-32% on N-body benchmarks and uncertainty-error correlation from 0.75 to 0.84 on silica.
Mathematical Geosciences , volume=
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Quantile-based trading strategies for battery arbitrage fail to incentivize honest probabilistic forecasts and ignore price dependence, while stochastic programs using full distributions better connect forecast accuracy to economic value.
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Uncertainty-aware Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials via Learned Functional Perturbations
Learned functional perturbations plus CRPS training convert deterministic ML interatomic potentials into probabilistic ones, improving CRPS by 19-32% on N-body benchmarks and uncertainty-error correlation from 0.75 to 0.84 on silica.
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Probabilistic Forecasting for Day-ahead Electricity Prices, Battery Trading Strategies and the Economic Evaluation of Predictive Accuracy
Quantile-based trading strategies for battery arbitrage fail to incentivize honest probabilistic forecasts and ignore price dependence, while stochastic programs using full distributions better connect forecast accuracy to economic value.