GWTC-4 data reveals three sub-populations of binary black holes with distinct delay-time distributions that depend on mass above 45 solar masses, mass-ratio, and spin, ruling out a single universal merger rate.
Reversible-jump MCMC reveals binary black hole subpopulations with distinct redshift evolution
7 Pith papers cite this work. Polarity classification is still indexing.
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abstract
Analyses of the growing catalog of binary black hole (BBH) mergers observed by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA detectors are beginning to resolve features in their population-level mass, spin, and redshift distributions, revealing imprints of the astrophysical processes driving their formation and evolution. We present a novel method to search for subpopulations in the data using reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo, providing interpretable results while making minimal prior assumptions. We find evidence for three subpopulations: a narrow subpopulation in primary mass at $\sim 10~M_\odot$ with preferentially aligned spins and unequal masses, consistent with isolated binary evolution; a subpopulation broadly distributed around $\sim 30~M_\odot$ with isotropically-distributed spins and a strong preference for equal mass ratios, consistent with dynamical formation in clusters; and a high-spin subpopulation spanning the continuum in mass, which we interpret as the confluence of multiple subdominant formation channels. When we allow for the independent redshift evolution of each subpopulation, we find that the subpopulation encompassing the $10~M_\odot$ peak evolves more quickly than the $30~M_\odot$ subpopulation, with implications for the delay-time distribution and metallicity-dependent BBH formation efficiency. Our work lays the foundation for a novel data-driven framework to infer the formation mechanisms of BBHs.
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2026 7verdicts
UNVERDICTED 7representative citing papers
Hierarchical Bayesian analysis of GWTC-5.0 data identifies a mass transition at 15.2 solar masses separating distinct effective-spin distributions, pointing to different formation channels for low-mass binary black holes.
Joint strong-lensing and population inference on resolved gravitational-wave events finds no lensed events and tightens constraints on the black-hole merger rate peak redshift and high-redshift tail.
BBH-Genesis applied to GWTC-4 finds strongest support for a two-channel model of binary black hole populations with possible mild evidence for an AGN-related third channel.
Non-parametric analysis of GWTC-5.0 data supports multiple subpopulations of binary black holes distinguished by effective spin, with one aligned subpopulation suggesting dynamical formation.
GWTC-5.0 analysis finds evidence for structure beyond a non-skewed Gaussian bulk in χ_eff, with suggestive mass-dependent excess of positive over negative spins outside the bulk at 13:1 odds in one mass bin.
A review summarizing formation-channel predictions, waveform effects, and population-level constraints on stellar-mass black hole spins from the first decade of gravitational-wave observations.
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The first decade of gravitational-wave measurements of black hole spins
A review summarizing formation-channel predictions, waveform effects, and population-level constraints on stellar-mass black hole spins from the first decade of gravitational-wave observations.