Prediction market prices for Bitcoin thresholds on Polymarket exceed option-implied probabilities from Binance by 5.6-6.3 percentage points on average, with the gap persistent yet mean-reverting.
Prediction Market Accuracy in the Long Run
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Prediction market inventories for Africa and Latin America topics are shaped more by settlement legibility than by public salience, with sports and elections favored over conflicts.
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Do Prediction Markets Match Option Prices? Bitcoin Threshold Evidence from Binance and Polymarket
Prediction market prices for Bitcoin thresholds on Polymarket exceed option-implied probabilities from Binance by 5.6-6.3 percentage points on average, with the gap persistent yet mean-reverting.
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What Prediction Markets Can See: Market Formation, Settlement Legibility, and the Geography of Tradable Uncertainty in Africa and Latin America
Prediction market inventories for Africa and Latin America topics are shaped more by settlement legibility than by public salience, with sports and elections favored over conflicts.