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Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology , volume=

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Reading Calibrated Uncertainty from Language Model Trajectories

cs.LG · 2026-05-19 · unverdicted · novelty 6.0

Geometric features from per-layer MLP update trajectories fed to a sparse linear probe outperform maximum softmax probability for uncertainty quantification under selective abstention, with gains up to 21 AURC points.

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