A Bayesian global Fréchet regression method is introduced via a Fréchet Bayes rule that reduces the problem to scalar tasks, allows prior-data interpolation, and remains valid under moment conditions using weak conditional expectations.
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Predictive Bayesian inference posteriors concentrate onto a forward-model-dependent quantity and produce miscalibrated credible sets unless the predictive model contains the true data-generating process.
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Bayesian Global Fr\'echet Regression via Weak Conditional Expectations
A Bayesian global Fréchet regression method is introduced via a Fréchet Bayes rule that reduces the problem to scalar tasks, allows prior-data interpolation, and remains valid under moment conditions using weak conditional expectations.
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Concentration and Calibration in Predictive Bayesian Inference
Predictive Bayesian inference posteriors concentrate onto a forward-model-dependent quantity and produce miscalibrated credible sets unless the predictive model contains the true data-generating process.