Bayesian sampling of ~1M EDF parameter sets combined with subspace-projected CDFT shows that statistical uncertainties bring deformed nuclei 150Nd and 150Sm into agreement with data while near-spherical 136Xe and 136Ba remain outside the predicted bands.
Error Estimates of Theoretical Models: a Guide
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abstract
This guide offers suggestions/insights on uncertainty quantification of nuclear structure models. We discuss a simple approach to statistical error estimates, strategies to assess systematic errors, and show how to uncover inter-dependencies by correlation analysis. The basic concepts are illustrated through simple examples. By providing theoretical error bars on predicted quantities and using statistical methods to study correlations between observables, theory can significantly enhance the feedback between experiment and nuclear modeling.
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Statistical uncertainty quantification for multireference covariant density functional theory
Bayesian sampling of ~1M EDF parameter sets combined with subspace-projected CDFT shows that statistical uncertainties bring deformed nuclei 150Nd and 150Sm into agreement with data while near-spherical 136Xe and 136Ba remain outside the predicted bands.