Action-conditional conformal prediction sets provide per-action safety guarantees for risk-averse policies that optimize conditional value-at-risk through pinball-loss minimization.
arXiv preprint arXiv:2405.07976 , year=
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Risk-controlled post-processing yields a threshold-structured policy that follows the baseline except where an oracle fallback sharply reduces conditional violation risk, achieving O(log n/n) expected excess risk in i.i.d. settings and exact risk control under exchangeability.
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Conformal Risk-Averse Decision Making with Action Conditional Guarantee
Action-conditional conformal prediction sets provide per-action safety guarantees for risk-averse policies that optimize conditional value-at-risk through pinball-loss minimization.
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Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies
Risk-controlled post-processing yields a threshold-structured policy that follows the baseline except where an oracle fallback sharply reduces conditional violation risk, achieving O(log n/n) expected excess risk in i.i.d. settings and exact risk control under exchangeability.