Calypso is a parameter-conditioned stochastic surrogate model for circumbinary accretion flows using PCA and multivariate Gaussian modeling, released as open-source software with a closed-form likelihood for parameter inference from time series.
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Self-consistent thermal regulation in circumbinary disks permits long-lived non-accretion phases that suppress binary feeding rates toward the Eddington limit while leaving optical/near-IR detectability intact.
Customized chromatic noise models for 67 pulsars detect non-dispersive delays in 21 cases, alter achromatic noise inferences in 19, and enable solar wind density estimates over 1.5 cycles.
Customized chromatic noise models applied to NANOGrav 15 yr data raise the Bayes factor for Hellings-Downs GWB correlations by a factor of ~8, lower the amplitude to 2.1e-15, and increase the spectral index to 3.5.
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Dynamics and detectability of long-lived non-accretion phases for massive black hole binaries in cold, thermally regulating disks
Self-consistent thermal regulation in circumbinary disks permits long-lived non-accretion phases that suppress binary feeding rates toward the Eddington limit while leaving optical/near-IR detectability intact.