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A cluster driven log-volatility factor model: a deepening on the source of the volatility clustering

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abstract

We introduce a new factor model for log volatilities that performs dimensionality reduction and considers contributions globally through the market, and locally through cluster structure and their interactions. We do not assume a-priori the number of clusters in the data, instead using the Directed Bubble Hierarchical Tree (DBHT) algorithm to fix the number of factors. We use the factor model and a new integrated non parametric proxy to study how volatilities contribute to volatility clustering. Globally, only the market contributes to the volatility clustering. Locally for some clusters, the cluster itself contributes statistically to volatility clustering. This is significantly advantageous over other factor models, since the factors can be chosen statistically, whilst also keeping economically relevant factors. Finally, we show that the log volatility factor model explains a similar amount of memory to a Principal Components Analysis (PCA) factor model and an exploratory factor model.

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2025 1

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  • Optimal Linear Baseline Models for Scientific Machine Learning cs.LG · 2025-08-07 · conditional · none · ref 86 · internal anchor

    Closed-form rank-constrained linear estimators, derived from Bayes risk, unify forward modeling, inverse recovery, autoencoding, and denoising, and often match or beat trained neural networks.