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GW231123: Overlapping Gravitational Wave Signals?

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abstract

The recently discovered gravitational wave event GW231123 was interpreted as the merger of two black holes with a total mass of 190-265 $M_\odot$, making it the heaviest such merger detected to date. Whilst much of the post-discovery literature has focused on its astrophysical origins, primary analyses have exhibited considerable discrepancies in the measurement of source properties between waveform models, which cannot reliably be reproduced by simulations. Such discrepancies may arise when an unaccounted overlapping signal is present in the data, or from phenomena that produce similar effects, such as gravitational lensing or overlapping noise artifacts. In this work, we analyse GW231123 using a flexible model that allows for two overlapping signals, and find that it is favoured over the isolated signal model with Bayes factors of $\sim 10^2 - 10^{4}$, depending on the waveform model. These values lie within the top few per cent of the background distribution. Similar effects are not observed in GW190521, another high-mass event. Under the overlapping signals model, discrepancies in the measurement of source properties between waveform models are largely mitigated. We also find that neglecting an additional signal in overlapping-signal data can lead to discrepancies in the estimated source properties resembling those reported in GW231123. Although the overlapping signal model provides a higher Bayesian evidence, the astrophysical prior probability of two short signals overlapping is low. However, we find that the two recovered sources show similar properties. This, taken with the higher evidence of the two signal model, suggests that gravitational lensing may provide an alternative explanation.

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years

2026 8

representative citing papers

Wave-optics gravitational wave lensing in modified gravity

gr-qc · 2026-05-20 · unverdicted · novelty 8.0

In a curvature-coupled propagation framework for modified gravity, gravitational-wave lensing in wave optics shows persistent infrared interactions that prevent the amplification factor from approaching unity at zero frequency, requiring an interacting Green function and partial-wave treatment.

Gravitational-wave lensing beyond rays: a disordered-system approach

astro-ph.CO · 2026-04-16 · unverdicted · novelty 7.0

A quenched-disorder approach with Schwinger-Keldysh path integrals produces an averaged density matrix for gravitational waves that separates phase-suppressing exponential terms from oscillatory corrections to coherent propagation.

BB plot: A Tool for Accurate Model Selection Using Bayes factors

gr-qc · 2026-05-11 · unverdicted · novelty 6.0

The BB plot is a new diagnostic that links Bayes factors to their expected distributions under competing hypotheses, enabling validation of calculations and low-cost background estimation for model selection in GW studies.

Ringdown Analysis of GW250114 with Orthonormal Modes

gr-qc · 2026-05-05 · unverdicted · novelty 5.0

Orthonormal QNM analysis of GW250114 raises the significance of the first overtone of the ℓ=m=2 mode from 82.5% to 99.9% and detects no significant deviation from Kerr predictions.

Polarization Birefringence and Waveform Systematics in GW231123

astro-ph.HE · 2026-05-14 · unverdicted · novelty 4.0

Analysis of GW231123 with IMRPhenomXPHM, IMRPhenomXO4a and NRSur7dq4 yields no waveform-independent evidence for polarization birefringence, with 90% upper limits on the derived coefficient of 0.378, 0.097 and 0.273 respectively.

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