Forward Flux Sampling applied to a 1-degree neural weather emulator resolves conditional tropical cyclogenesis rates spanning three orders of magnitude across 98 Atlantic initial conditions, with self-consistency ratio 1.03 to direct sampling and computational gains up to 140X.
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Conditional Tropical Cyclogenesis Rates via Rare-Event Sampling in a Neural Weather Emulator
Forward Flux Sampling applied to a 1-degree neural weather emulator resolves conditional tropical cyclogenesis rates spanning three orders of magnitude across 98 Atlantic initial conditions, with self-consistency ratio 1.03 to direct sampling and computational gains up to 140X.