An agentic forecaster with linguistic belief states, logit-space multi-trial shrinkage, and hierarchical Platt calibration achieves SOTA Brier Index on ForecastBench binary questions.
Jones, Philip E
1 Pith paper cite this work. Polarity classification is still indexing.
1
Pith paper citing it
fields
cs.AI 1years
2026 1verdicts
CONDITIONAL 1representative citing papers
citing papers explorer
-
Agentic Forecasting using Sequential Bayesian Updating of Linguistic Beliefs
An agentic forecaster with linguistic belief states, logit-space multi-trial shrinkage, and hierarchical Platt calibration achieves SOTA Brier Index on ForecastBench binary questions.