This paper introduces a systems-level conceptual framing and a three-level taxonomy (intra-model, system-level, socio-technical) for uncertainty propagation in compound LLM applications, along with engineering insights and open challenges.
24 Published in Transactions on Machine Learning Research (04/2026) A Appendix Contents A.1 Reward Design and PPO Stabilization Sensitivity
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CoT prompting in LLM4Code shows mixed robustness that depends on model family, task structure, and perturbations destabilizing structural anchors, leading to trajectory deformations like lengthening, branching, and simplification.
OracleTSC introduces a reward hurdle and uncertainty regularization to stabilize LLM-based reinforcement learning for traffic signal control, delivering 75% lower travel time and 67% lower queue length on benchmarks plus cross-intersection generalization.
REC RL improves LLM code generation by automatically assessing and optimizing requirement difficulty with adaptive curriculum sampling, yielding 1.23-5.62% Pass@1 gains over baselines.
AdaDec improves Pass@1 accuracy of LLM code generation by up to 20.9% over greedy decoding by triggering lookahead reranking only at high-uncertainty steps on HumanEval+, MBPP+, and DevEval.
TokUR estimates token-level uncertainty via low-rank weight perturbations in LLMs, aggregates signals to correlate with correctness, and uses them to improve reasoning performance on math tasks.
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Uncertainty Propagation in LLM-Based Systems
This paper introduces a systems-level conceptual framing and a three-level taxonomy (intra-model, system-level, socio-technical) for uncertainty propagation in compound LLM applications, along with engineering insights and open challenges.
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Structural Anchors and Reasoning Fragility:Understanding CoT Robustness in LLM4Code
CoT prompting in LLM4Code shows mixed robustness that depends on model family, task structure, and perturbations destabilizing structural anchors, leading to trajectory deformations like lengthening, branching, and simplification.
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OracleTSC: Oracle-Informed Reward Hurdle and Uncertainty Regularization for Traffic Signal Control
OracleTSC introduces a reward hurdle and uncertainty regularization to stabilize LLM-based reinforcement learning for traffic signal control, delivering 75% lower travel time and 67% lower queue length on benchmarks plus cross-intersection generalization.
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Improving LLM Code Generation via Requirement-Aware Curriculum Reinforcement Learning
REC RL improves LLM code generation by automatically assessing and optimizing requirement difficulty with adaptive curriculum sampling, yielding 1.23-5.62% Pass@1 gains over baselines.
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AdaDec: A Uncertainty-Guided Lookahead Decoding Framework for LLM-Based Code Generation
AdaDec improves Pass@1 accuracy of LLM code generation by up to 20.9% over greedy decoding by triggering lookahead reranking only at high-uncertainty steps on HumanEval+, MBPP+, and DevEval.
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TokUR: Token-Level Uncertainty Estimation for Large Language Model Reasoning
TokUR estimates token-level uncertainty via low-rank weight perturbations in LLMs, aggregates signals to correlate with correctness, and uses them to improve reasoning performance on math tasks.