Aggregation distorts parametric behavioral curve peaks by factors of 3-5x via Simpson's paradox and survival bias, shown by individual vs. aggregate comparisons on Goodreads and Amazon datasets with a negative control.
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Standard conformal prediction gives nominal overall coverage on Pew survey data but leaves ~13-point weighted gaps across race-education subgroups, and group-specific Mondrian calibration does not reliably close them.
citing papers explorer
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Simpson's Paradox in Behavioral Curves: How Aggregation Distorts Parametric Models of User Dynamics
Aggregation distorts parametric behavioral curve peaks by factors of 3-5x via Simpson's paradox and survival bias, shown by individual vs. aggregate comparisons on Goodreads and Amazon datasets with a negative control.
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Socio-Conformal Calibration in Complex Survey Data: Marginal Validity Is Not Enough for Subgroup Reliability
Standard conformal prediction gives nominal overall coverage on Pew survey data but leaves ~13-point weighted gaps across race-education subgroups, and group-specific Mondrian calibration does not reliably close them.