The relaxation to permutation invariance in distribution is shown to be insufficient for full conformal prediction validity under stochastic non-conformity measures, and Conditional Independence & Permutation Invariance in Distribution is provided as the correct sufficient condition.
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Two novel online conformal prediction algorithms enforce nested prediction sets across coverage levels using online optimization with regret bounds for quantile error control.
Trimming helps conformal prediction under contamination precisely when the anomaly score separates retention probabilities without biasing clean scores, otherwise the retained mixture coefficient prevents substantial decontamination.
A classification-integrated conformal framework for zero-inflated outcomes that guarantees marginal coverage and asymptotic minimal length under exchangeability, independent of the underlying models.
SA-BCP adaptively blends temporal Bayesian predictions with spatial KDE evidence via threshold K, derives closed-form MSE-optimal K, and provides an online selection procedure with regret bounds, yielding sharper intervals at nominal coverage on volatility and weather data.
STOIC integrates STGNN point forecasting with tabular foundation model in-context learning for conformal prediction to quantify uncertainty in graph-structured energy time series.
C-SymmPI reformulates conditional coverage as miscoverage error over a user-specified function class to deliver near-conditional guarantees under group symmetries and distributional invariance.
A model-agnostic two-stage estimator for conditional quantiles that represents the high-fidelity quantile as a low-fidelity quantile evaluated at a covariate-dependent level, with theory on faster convergence rates under shape similarity.
CPR uses query-level conformal calibration over path scores and a PUCT-trained RCVNet to achieve valid coverage guarantees and smaller prediction sets in KGQA, reporting 45% higher empirical coverage and 52% smaller sets than prior conformal baselines.
Clipped least-squares importance fitting enables weighted conformal prediction to achieve dataset-conditional coverage guarantees under unbounded covariate shifts by bounding undercoverage and estimating a corrective inflation factor from data.
The weighted Holm procedure (WHP) based on ordered weighted p-values is uniformly more powerful than the weighted alternative Holm procedure (WAP) based on ordered raw p-values, with stronger optimality properties under FWER control.
citing papers explorer
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Full Conformal Prediction under Stochastic Non-Conformity Measure
The relaxation to permutation invariance in distribution is shown to be insufficient for full conformal prediction validity under stochastic non-conformity measures, and Conditional Independence & Permutation Invariance in Distribution is provided as the correct sufficient condition.
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Online Conformal Prediction: Enforcing monotonicity via Online Optimization
Two novel online conformal prediction algorithms enforce nested prediction sets across coverage levels using online optimization with regret bounds for quantile error control.
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When Does Trimming Help Conformal Prediction? A Retained-Law Diagnostic under Calibration Contamination
Trimming helps conformal prediction under contamination precisely when the anomaly score separates retention probabilities without biasing clean scores, otherwise the retained mixture coefficient prevents substantial decontamination.
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Classification-Powered Conformal Inference for Zero-inflated Outcomes
A classification-integrated conformal framework for zero-inflated outcomes that guarantees marginal coverage and asymptotic minimal length under exchangeability, independent of the underlying models.
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Optimal Spatio-Temporal Decoupling for Bayesian Conformal Prediction
SA-BCP adaptively blends temporal Bayesian predictions with spatial KDE evidence via threshold K, derives closed-form MSE-optimal K, and provides an online selection procedure with regret bounds, yielding sharper intervals at nominal coverage on volatility and weather data.
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Relational and Sequential Conformal Inference for Energy Time Series over Graphs via Foundation Models
STOIC integrates STGNN point forecasting with tabular foundation model in-context learning for conformal prediction to quantify uncertainty in graph-structured energy time series.
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Conditional Predictive Inference for General Structured Data with Group Symmetries
C-SymmPI reformulates conditional coverage as miscoverage error over a user-specified function class to deliver near-conditional guarantees under group symmetries and distributional invariance.
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Multi-Fidelity Quantile Regression
A model-agnostic two-stage estimator for conditional quantiles that represents the high-fidelity quantile as a low-fidelity quantile evaluated at a covariate-dependent level, with theory on faster convergence rates under shape similarity.
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Conformal Path Reasoning: Trustworthy Knowledge Graph Question Answering via Path-Level Calibration
CPR uses query-level conformal calibration over path scores and a PUCT-trained RCVNet to achieve valid coverage guarantees and smaller prediction sets in KGQA, reporting 45% higher empirical coverage and 52% smaller sets than prior conformal baselines.
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Weight Clipping for Robust Conformal Inference under Unbounded Covariate Shifts
Clipped least-squares importance fitting enables weighted conformal prediction to achieve dataset-conditional coverage guarantees under unbounded covariate shifts by bounding undercoverage and estimating a corrective inflation factor from data.
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Weighted Holm Procedures: Theory, Properties, and Recommendations
The weighted Holm procedure (WHP) based on ordered weighted p-values is uniformly more powerful than the weighted alternative Holm procedure (WAP) based on ordered raw p-values, with stronger optimality properties under FWER control.