StakeBench is a new benchmark using market-derived supervision from resolved prediction markets to test LLMs on commitment detection, side identification, action anticipation, and odds projection, revealing partial success on sides but structural failures on higher tasks.
Llms can teach themselves to better predict the future.arXiv preprint arXiv:2502.05253, 2025
2 Pith papers cite this work. Polarity classification is still indexing.
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The paper introduces ClinQueryAgent, a conversational agent that converts natural language queries into database queries for population health management while keeping patient data secure, and reports its use by 128 staff across 15 NHS practices covering 148,319 patients.
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StakeBench: Evaluating Language Understanding Grounded in Market Commitment
StakeBench is a new benchmark using market-derived supervision from resolved prediction markets to test LLMs on commitment detection, side identification, action anticipation, and odds projection, revealing partial success on sides but structural failures on higher tasks.
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ClinQueryAgent: A Conversational Agent for Population Health Management
The paper introduces ClinQueryAgent, a conversational agent that converts natural language queries into database queries for population health management while keeping patient data secure, and reports its use by 128 staff across 15 NHS practices covering 148,319 patients.