Bayesian evidence computation on DESI DR2 plus Planck and supernovae eliminates the frequentist 3.1 sigma preference for w0waCDM over LambdaCDM when using the DES-Dovekie recalibration, yielding ln B = -0.30 favoring the standard model.
Lyons,Discovering the significance of 5σ,arXiv preprint(2013) [1310.1284]
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abstract
We discuss the traditional criterion for discovery in Particle Physics of requiring a significance corresponding to at least 5 sigma; and whether a more nuanced approach might be better.
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Bayesian evidence favors a constant dark energy model for DESI plus Planck data and shows that apparent support for evolving dark energy with added supernova data stems from a 2.95 sigma tension between DESI and DES-SN5YR that the flexible model resolves.
The ΛsCDM model with coupled dark sectors reduces the Hubble tension to 1.2σ via late-time expansion changes while keeping the early-universe sound horizon nearly unchanged.
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The Bayesian view of DESI DR2 with unimpeded: Evidence and tension in a combined analysis with CMB and supernovae across cosmological models
Bayesian evidence computation on DESI DR2 plus Planck and supernovae eliminates the frequentist 3.1 sigma preference for w0waCDM over LambdaCDM when using the DES-Dovekie recalibration, yielding ln B = -0.30 favoring the standard model.
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A Bayesian Perspective on Evidence for Evolving Dark Energy
Bayesian evidence favors a constant dark energy model for DESI plus Planck data and shows that apparent support for evolving dark energy with added supernova data stems from a 2.95 sigma tension between DESI and DES-SN5YR that the flexible model resolves.
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Alleviating the Hubble Tension Using $\Lambda$sCDM Model: A Coupled Dark Energy - Dark Matter Interaction
The ΛsCDM model with coupled dark sectors reduces the Hubble tension to 1.2σ via late-time expansion changes while keeping the early-universe sound horizon nearly unchanged.