Bayesian evidence computation on DESI DR2 plus Planck and supernovae eliminates the frequentist 3.1 sigma preference for w0waCDM over LambdaCDM when using the DES-Dovekie recalibration, yielding ln B = -0.30 favoring the standard model.
Discovering the Significance of 5 sigma
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abstract
We discuss the traditional criterion for discovery in Particle Physics of requiring a significance corresponding to at least 5 sigma; and whether a more nuanced approach might be better.
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Bayesian evidence favors a constant dark energy model for DESI plus Planck data and shows that apparent support for evolving dark energy with added supernova data stems from a 2.95 sigma tension between DESI and DES-SN5YR that the flexible model resolves.
The ΛsCDM model with coupled dark sectors reduces the Hubble tension to 1.2σ via late-time expansion changes while keeping the early-universe sound horizon nearly unchanged.
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Alleviating the Hubble Tension Using $\Lambda$sCDM Model: A Coupled Dark Energy - Dark Matter Interaction
The ΛsCDM model with coupled dark sectors reduces the Hubble tension to 1.2σ via late-time expansion changes while keeping the early-universe sound horizon nearly unchanged.