The geometric R-tipping indicator shows superior skill to simple thresholds for early prediction of tipping under rapid forcing in a 3-box AMOC model.
Noise parameter values obtained from [10] correspond to the 3-box model calibrated against a simulation of the HadGEM3MM model [9]
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Evaluating the skill of a geometric early warning for tipping in a rapidly forced nonlinear system
The geometric R-tipping indicator shows superior skill to simple thresholds for early prediction of tipping under rapid forcing in a 3-box AMOC model.