Individually calibrated predictors become collectively miscalibrated under Brier-optimal strategic responses with positive belief correlations, but VCG aggregation restores dominant-strategy incentive compatibility and near-optimal performance.
Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability
8 Pith papers cite this work. Polarity classification is still indexing.
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Inducing artificial uncertainty on trivial tasks allows training probes that achieve higher calibration on hard data than standard approaches while retaining performance on easy data.
Non-affine approval functions create unavoidable miscalibration in proper scoring rules for strategic agents, but step-function thresholds enable first-best screening without it, uniquely for the Brier score.
Probabilistic bias correction doubles AI subseasonal forecast skill and wins a 2025 international competition by correcting biases in ECMWF models for pressure, temperature, and precipitation.
A knowledge-data dual paradigm using geomorphic priors and a tabular foundation model achieves baseline-level landslide susceptibility prediction accuracy with only 30% of typical data in tested regions.
Single-seed CRPS estimates in limited-data BDL show high variance and peaks for heteroscedastic methods, with local variance correlating above 0.96 to single-seed error.
Stacked video ensemble model distinguishes BAV from TAV on PLAX cine loops with outer-CV F1 of 0.907 using Grad-CAM and SHAP for explainability.
citing papers explorer
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The Endogeneity of Miscalibration: Impossibility and Escape in Scored Reporting
Non-affine approval functions create unavoidable miscalibration in proper scoring rules for strategic agents, but step-function thresholds enable first-best screening without it, uniquely for the Brier score.
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Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction
Probabilistic bias correction doubles AI subseasonal forecast skill and wins a 2025 international competition by correcting biases in ECMWF models for pressure, temperature, and precipitation.