A realtime causal bandpass filter plus echo-state network reports 24-month ENSO prediction skill, but the skill is measured on a filtered proxy index whose filter is tuned on the full data record.
Data-driven modeling from biased small training data using periodic orbits
1 Pith paper cite this work. Polarity classification is still indexing.
abstract
In this study, we investigate the effect of reservoir computing training data on the reconstruction of chaotic dynamics. Our findings indicate that a training time series comprising a few periodic orbits of low periods can successfully reconstruct the Lorenz attractor. We also demonstrate that biased training data does not negatively impact reconstruction success. Our method's ability to reconstruct a physical measure is much better than the so-called cycle expansion approach, which relies on weighted averaging. Additionally, we demonstrate that fixed point attractors and chaotic transients can be accurately reconstructed by a model trained from a few periodic orbits, even when using different parameters.
fields
physics.comp-ph 1years
2025 1verdicts
REJECT 1representative citing papers
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Long-term prediction of El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation using reservoir computing with data-driven realtime filter
A realtime causal bandpass filter plus echo-state network reports 24-month ENSO prediction skill, but the skill is measured on a filtered proxy index whose filter is tuned on the full data record.