Using generalized joint regression models that model alliance formation and conflict together, the study finds that defensive alliances have an average treatment effect indistinguishable from zero.
Democracy, political similarity, and international alliances, 1816-1992
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Alliances and Conflict, or Conflict and Alliances? Appraising the Causal Effect of Alliances on Conflict
Using generalized joint regression models that model alliance formation and conflict together, the study finds that defensive alliances have an average treatment effect indistinguishable from zero.