Introduces a logit jump-diffusion kernel with risk-neutral drift for modeling and hedging belief dynamics in prediction markets, plus calibration and derivative instruments.
Kalshi prediction markets are pulling in$1 billion monthly as state regu- lators loom
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Toward Black Scholes for Prediction Markets: A Unified Kernel and Market Maker's Handbook
Introduces a logit jump-diffusion kernel with risk-neutral drift for modeling and hedging belief dynamics in prediction markets, plus calibration and derivative instruments.