Proxy metrics from next-token distributions over expert solutions outperform loss and compute baselines for ranking LLMs, selecting pretraining data, and extrapolating performance across compute scales.
The Twelfth International Conference on Learning Representations , year=
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MS-FLOW uses a capacity-limited sparse routing mechanism to model only critical inter-variable dependencies in time series data, achieving state-of-the-art accuracy on 12 benchmarks with fewer but more reliable connections.
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Forecasting Downstream Performance of LLMs With Proxy Metrics
Proxy metrics from next-token distributions over expert solutions outperform loss and compute baselines for ranking LLMs, selecting pretraining data, and extrapolating performance across compute scales.
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What If We Let Forecasting Forget? A Sparse Bottleneck for Cross-Variable Dependencies
MS-FLOW uses a capacity-limited sparse routing mechanism to model only critical inter-variable dependencies in time series data, achieving state-of-the-art accuracy on 12 benchmarks with fewer but more reliable connections.