Maximum-likelihood-based posterior predictive checks detect model misspecification better than event-level versions for uncertain spin tilts, but current detector sensitivity limits their power; the Gaussian Component Spins model underpredicts high spin magnitudes and overpredicts anti-aligned tilts
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GWTC BBH mergers have typical recoil kicks of ~300–330 km/s, with retention of only ~2–3% in globular clusters; hierarchical-merger prospects depend on both retention and post-kick re-centering.
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Posterior Predictive Checks for Gravitational-wave Populations: Limitations and Improvements
Maximum-likelihood-based posterior predictive checks detect model misspecification better than event-level versions for uncertain spin tilts, but current detector sensitivity limits their power; the Gaussian Component Spins model underpredicts high spin magnitudes and overpredicts anti-aligned tilts
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Recoil kicks from binary black hole mergers in GWTC catalogs: implications for retention and hierarchical mergers
GWTC BBH mergers have typical recoil kicks of ~300–330 km/s, with retention of only ~2–3% in globular clusters; hierarchical-merger prospects depend on both retention and post-kick re-centering.