A literature survey finds no peer-reviewed Bitcoin price models beat the naive baseline at medium horizons and proposes methodological improvements including walk-forward testing and Diebold-Mariano tests.
Forecasting Bitcoin returns: Econometric time series analysis vs.\ machine learning
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Bitcoin Price Prediction: Peer-Reviewed Evidence and Social Media Discourse
A literature survey finds no peer-reviewed Bitcoin price models beat the naive baseline at medium horizons and proposes methodological improvements including walk-forward testing and Diebold-Mariano tests.