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Optimal Spatio-Temporal Decoupling for Bayesian Conformal Prediction

cs.LG · 2026-05-01 · unverdicted · novelty 7.0

SA-BCP adaptively blends temporal Bayesian predictions with spatial KDE evidence via threshold K, derives closed-form MSE-optimal K, and provides an online selection procedure with regret bounds, yielding sharper intervals at nominal coverage on volatility and weather data.

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  • Optimal Spatio-Temporal Decoupling for Bayesian Conformal Prediction cs.LG · 2026-05-01 · unverdicted · none · ref 28

    SA-BCP adaptively blends temporal Bayesian predictions with spatial KDE evidence via threshold K, derives closed-form MSE-optimal K, and provides an online selection procedure with regret bounds, yielding sharper intervals at nominal coverage on volatility and weather data.