LLMs show inconsistent belief updates from evidence, with learned heuristics sometimes beating exact Bayesian computation due to misspecified world models.
The following figure indicates the number of observations with evidence at the specified evidence step
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LLMs are not (consistently) Bayesian: Quantifying internal (in)consistencies of LLMs' probabilistic beliefs
LLMs show inconsistent belief updates from evidence, with learned heuristics sometimes beating exact Bayesian computation due to misspecified world models.