Turbulent Disks are Never Stable: Fragmentation and Turbulence-Promoted Planet Formation

A fundamental assumption in our understanding of disks is that when the Toomre Q>>1, the disk is stable against fragmentation into self-gravitating objects (and so cannot form planets via direct collapse). But if disks are turbulent, this neglects a spectrum of stochastic density fluctuations that can produce rare, high-density mass concentrations. Here, we use a recently-developed analytic framework to predict the statistics of these fluctuations, i.e. the rate of fragmentation and mass spectrum of fragments formed in a turbulent Keplerian disk. Turbulent disks are never completely stable: we calculate the (always finite) probability of forming self-gravitating structures via stochastic turbulent density fluctuations in such disks. Modest sub-sonic turbulence above Mach number ~0.1 can produce a few stochastic fragmentation or 'direct collapse' events over ~Myr timescales, even if Q>>1 and cooling is slow (t_cool>>t_orbit). In trans-sonic turbulence this extends to Q~100. We derive the true Q-criterion needed to suppress such events, which scales exponentially with Mach number. We specify to turbulence driven by MRI, convection, or spiral waves, and derive equivalent criteria in terms of Q and the cooling time. Cooling times >~50*t_dyn may be required to completely suppress fragmentation. These gravoturbulent events produce mass spectra peaked near ~M_disk*(Q*M_disk/M_star)^2 (rocky-to-giant planet masses, increasing with distance from the star). We apply this to protoplanetary disk models and show that even minimum mass solar nebulae could experience stochastic collapse events, provided a source of turbulence.