The Orbit of Transneptunian Binary Manw\"e and Thorondor and their Upcoming Mutual Events

A new Hubble Space Telescope observation of the 7:4 resonant transneptunian binary system (385446) Manw\"e has shown that, of two previously reported solutions for the orbit of its satellite Thorondor, the prograde one is correct. The orbit has a period of 110.18 $\pm$ 0.02 days, semimajor axis of 6670 $\pm$ 40 km, and an eccentricity of 0.563 $\pm$ 0.007. It will be viewable edge-on from the inner solar system during 2015-2017, presenting opportunities to observe mutual occultation and eclipse events. However, the number of observable events will be small, owing to the long orbital period and expected small sizes of the bodies relative to their separation. This paper presents predictions for events observable from Earth-based telescopes and discusses the associated uncertainties and challenges.