Towards a No-Lose Theorem for Naturalness

We derive a phenomenological no-lose theorem for naturalness up to the TeV scale, which applies when quantum corrections to the Higgs mass from top quarks are canceled by perturbative BSM particles (top partners) of similar multiplicity due to to some symmetry. Null results from LHC searches already seem to disfavor such partners if they are colored. Any partners with SM charges and ~TeV masses will be exhaustively probed by the LHC and a future 100 TeV collider. Therefore, we focus on neutral top partners. While these arise in Twin Higgs theories, we analyze neutral top partners as model-independently as possible using EFT and Simplified Model methods. We classify all perturbative neutral top partner structures in order to compute their irreducible low-energy signatures at proposed future lepton and hadron colliders, as well as the irreducible tunings suffered in each scenario. Central to our theorem is the assumption that SM-charged BSM states appear in the UV completion of neutral naturalness, which is the case in all known examples. Direct production at the 100 TeV collider then allows this scale to be probed at the ~10 TeV level. We find that proposed future colliders probe any such scenario of naturalness with tuning of 10% or better. This provides very strong model-independent motivation for both new lepton and hadron colliders, which in tandem act as discovery machines for general naturalness. We put our results in context by discussing other possibilities for naturalness, including "swarms" of top partners, inherently non-perturbative or exotic physics, or theories without SM-charged states in the UV completion. Realizing a concrete scenario which avoids our arguments while still lacking experimental signatures remains an open model-building challenge.