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arxiv: 1511.03551 · v1 · pith:HH43MB2Jnew · submitted 2015-11-11 · 🧮 math.ST · stat.TH

Exchangeability, the 'Histogram Theorem', and population inference

classification 🧮 math.ST stat.TH
keywords populationinferencetheoremexchangeabilityhistogramappendixapplicationapproaches
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Some practical results are derived for population inference based on a sample, under the two qualitative conditions of 'ignorability' and exchangeability. These are the 'Histogram Theorem', for predicting the outcome of a non-sampled member of the population, and its application to inference about the population, both without and with groups. There are discussions of parametric versus non-parametric models, and different approaches to marginalisation. An Appendix gives a self-contained proof of the Representation Theorem for finite exchangeable sequences.

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