Statistical theory of reversals in two-dimensional confined turbulent flows

It is shown that the Truncated Euler Equations, i.e. a finite set of ordinary differential equations for the amplitude of the large-scale modes, can correctly describe the complex transitional dynamics that occur within the turbulent regime of a confined 2D Navier-Stokes flow with bottom friction and a spatially periodic forcing. In particular, the random reversals of the large scale circulation on the turbulent background involve bifurcations of the probability distribution function of the large-scale circulation velocity that are described by the related microcanonical distribution which displays transitions from gaussian to bimodal and broken ergodicity. A minimal 13-mode model reproduces these results.