Predictability of Extreme Intensity Pulses in Optically Injected Semiconductor Lasers

The predictability of extreme intensity pulses emitted by an optically injected semiconductor laser is studied numerically, by using a well-known rate equation model. We show that symbolic ordinal time-series analysis allows to identify the patterns of intensity oscillations that are likely to occur before an extreme pulse. The method also gives information about patterns which are unlikely to occur before an extreme pulse. The specific patterns identified capture the topology of the underlying chaotic attractor and depend on the model parameters. The methodology proposed here can be useful for analyzing data recorded from other complex systems that generate extreme fluctuations in their output signals.