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Lockdown effects in US states: an artificial counterfactual approach

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arxiv 2009.13484 v2 pith:FEJYESH4 submitted 2020-09-28 stat.AP econ.EMecon.GNq-fin.ECstat.MEstat.ML

Lockdown effects in US states: an artificial counterfactual approach

Carlos B. Carneiro , I\'uri H. Ferreira , Marcelo C. Medeiros , Henrique F. Pires , Eduardo Zilberman This is my paper
classification stat.AP econ.EMecon.GNq-fin.ECstat.MEstat.ML
keywords counterfactualartificiallockdownstatesapproachcasesnumberpolicies
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We adopt an artificial counterfactual approach to assess the impact of lockdowns on the short-run evolution of the number of cases and deaths in some US states. To do so, we explore the different timing in which US states adopted lockdown policies, and divide them among treated and control groups. For each treated state, we construct an artificial counterfactual. On average, and in the very short-run, the counterfactual accumulated number of cases would be two times larger if lockdown policies were not implemented.

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