TASTE V. A new ground-based investigation of orbital decay in the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-12b

The discovery of the first transiting hot Jupiters (HJs; giant planets on orbital periods shorter than $P\sim10$ days) was announced more than twenty years ago. As both ground- and space-based follow-up observations are piling up, we are approaching the temporal baseline required to detect secular variations in their orbital parameters. In particular, several recent studies focused on constraining the efficiency of the tidal decay mechanism to better understand the evolutionary time scales of HJ migration and engulfment. This can be achieved by measuring a monotonic decrease of orbital period $\mathrm{d}P/\mathrm{d}t<0$ due to mechanical energy being dissipated by tidal friction. WASP-12b was the first HJ for which a tidal decay scenario appeared convincing, even though alternative explanations have been hypothesized. Here we present a new analysis based on 28 unpublished high-precision transit light curves gathered over a twelve-year baseline and combined with all the available archival data, and an updated set of stellar parameters from HARPS-N high-resolution spectra, which are consistent with a main sequence scenario, close to the hydrogen exhaustion in the core. Our values of $\mathrm{d}P/\mathrm{d}t$ = $-30.72 \pm 2.67$ and $Q_{\ast}^{'}$ = $(2.13 \pm 0.18) \times 10^{5}$ are statistically consistent with previous studies, and indicate that WASP-12 is undergoing fast tidal dissipation. We additionally report the presence of an excess scatter in the timing data and discuss its possible origin.