Long-Term Clustering, Scaling, and Universality in the Temporal Occurrence of Earthquakes

Scaling analysis reveals striking regularities in earthquake occurrence. The time between any one earthquake and that following it is random, but it is described by the same universal-probability distribution for any spatial region and magnitude range considered. When time is expressed in rescaled units, set by the averaged seismic activity, the self-similar nature of the process becomes apparent. The form of the probability distribution reveals that earthquakes tend to cluster in time, beyond the duration of aftershock sequences. Furthermore, if aftershock sequences are analysed in an analogous way, yet taking into account the fact that seismic activity is not constant but decays in time, the same universal distribution is found for the rescaled time between events.